Tenure-System Faculty
848.4
-279.6 from 2025 (-24.8%)
Assistant Professors
129.6
-117.4 from 2025 (-47.5%)
NTT Faculty
648.6
+68.6 from 2025 (+11.8%)
Total Faculty
1,497.0
-211.0 from 2025 (-12.4%)
Student / Faculty Ratio
18.4
+2.3 from 2025 (+14.3%)
Interpretation
Under this scenario, tenure-system faculty decline while NTT capacity grows. Student/faculty ratio rises, indicating higher instructional pressure.
Tenure-system vs NTT over time
Assistant / Associate / Full over time
Student ratios
Change from baseline
| Metric | Baseline year value | Final year value | Change | Percent change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assistant | 247.0 | 129.6 | -117.4 | -47.5% |
| Associate | 381.0 | 273.1 | -107.9 | -28.3% |
| Full | 500.0 | 445.7 | -54.3 | -10.9% |
| Tenure-System | 1,128.0 | 848.4 | -279.6 | -24.8% |
| NTT | 580.0 | 648.6 | +68.6 | +11.8% |
| Total Faculty | 1,708.0 | 1,497.0 | -211.0 | -12.4% |
| Students | 27,510.0 | 27,510.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Students / NTT | 47.4 | 42.4 | -5.0 | -10.5% |
| Student / Faculty Ratio | 16.1 | 18.4 | +2.3 | +14.3% |
Year-by-year scenario modeling
| Year | Assistant | Associate | Full | Tenure-System | NTT | Total Faculty | Students | Students / NTT | Student / Faculty Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 247.0 | 381.0 | 500.0 | 1,128.0 | 580.0 | 1,708.0 | 27,510.0 | 47.4 | 16.1 |
| 2026 | 225.7 | 374.0 | 496.7 | 1,096.4 | 587.8 | 1,684.2 | 27,510.0 | 46.8 | 16.3 |
| 2027 | 207.7 | 365.1 | 493.0 | 1,065.7 | 595.3 | 1,661.0 | 27,510.0 | 46.2 | 16.6 |
| 2028 | 192.3 | 354.7 | 488.8 | 1,035.9 | 602.6 | 1,638.5 | 27,510.0 | 45.6 | 16.8 |
| 2029 | 179.2 | 343.5 | 484.2 | 1,006.9 | 609.8 | 1,616.6 | 27,510.0 | 45.1 | 17.0 |
| 2030 | 167.9 | 331.7 | 479.0 | 978.6 | 616.7 | 1,595.3 | 27,510.0 | 44.6 | 17.2 |
| 2031 | 158.2 | 319.8 | 473.3 | 951.2 | 623.4 | 1,574.6 | 27,510.0 | 44.1 | 17.5 |
| 2032 | 149.6 | 307.8 | 467.0 | 924.4 | 630.0 | 1,554.4 | 27,510.0 | 43.7 | 17.7 |
| 2033 | 142.2 | 295.9 | 460.3 | 898.4 | 636.4 | 1,534.8 | 27,510.0 | 43.2 | 17.9 |
| 2034 | 135.5 | 284.3 | 453.2 | 873.1 | 642.6 | 1,515.6 | 27,510.0 | 42.8 | 18.2 |
| 2035 | 129.6 | 273.1 | 445.7 | 848.4 | 648.6 | 1,497.0 | 27,510.0 | 42.4 | 18.4 |
These values define the scenario model's baseline and transition behavior.
Baseline counts
| Assistant | Associate | Full | NTT | Students |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247.0 | 381.0 | 500.0 | 580.0 | 27,510.0 |
Hiring probabilities
| Hiring pattern | Assistant | Associate | Full |
|---|---|---|---|
| historical | 0.7404 | 0.1357 | 0.1239 |
| recent | 0.8082 | 0.0685 | 0.1233 |
Transition matrix
| From \ To | Assistant | Associate | Full | Exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assistant | 0.8121 | 0.1251 | 0.0000 | 0.0628 |
| Associate | 0.0000 | 0.8950 | 0.0653 | 0.0396 |
| Full | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.9359 | 0.0631 |